Coronavirus Epidemic Update 25: Vaccine Developments, Italy’s Response, and Mortality Rate Trends

Coronavirus Epidemic Update 25: Vaccine Developments, Italy’s Response, and Mortality Rate Trends

welcome to another MedCram lecture on
the SARS cough to virus causing the kovat 19 disease this update is for the
25th of February 2020 and we’re gonna talk about Italy and China and then
vaccines this is gonna be kind of interesting when we get into that and
again here are the numbers that they are reporting so I’m simply reporting what
they are reporting and we’ve hit 80 thousand proper total deaths at almost
2700 total recovered 27,000 and so we’re up to a differential there of 10 times I
remember when that was almost on par in fact when it was even less than the
number of total deaths so whereas total deaths have leveled off we still have an
increasing amount of total recovery which is always a good thing let’s look
at the nucleus wealth site which I’ve found to have some interesting graphs
that are unique to it I’m gonna scroll all the way down here to the bottom
where they talk about the mortality rate or the case fatality rate and as we’ve
talked about there is a bit of a delay in measuring what the total cases are
right now compared to what the total deaths are right now there’s been a
question about whether or not you should delay the mortality accounts and look
back four days eight days or 12 days depending on how long it takes somebody
an average to die from the onset and in looking at those it’s interesting that
if you look at all of the cases outside of Wuhan in the rest of China you can
see here that if you look at a full 12 days out that the mortality rate or case
fatality rate reaches around the same asymptote as if you look at eight days
versus if you look at four days and that’s just under 1% if you look at who
Bay province which is where who Han is and you do the same sort of analysis it
all settles out again but not at just below 1% but just below 5% this kind of
makes sense if you think about the fact that inside who Bay where most of the
cases were their health care industry is going to be more overwhelmed and
therefore perhaps have a higher case fatality rate so you can take a look at
this site we’ll put the link to it in the description below we go
over to the world ometer as we have done in the past you can see similar numbers
here where I like to look as the active cases and the close cases of the closed
cases that we have 91% of recovered and been discharged and 9% deaths if we look
further on down we come to the latest updates for February 25th we can see
here that there’s one new death in South Korea another death on the diamond
princess two new cases in Italy and 60 new cases in South Korea possibly some
good news here in South Korea is that the 60 new cases that were seen today in
South Korea is a sharp decline in new cases compared to 161 and so this may be
that there might be a cluster in fact that’s what they’re saying that there’s
two clusters and that has to do with this church where they had met and this
may be the reason for the spreading and this accounts for over 50% of the cases
within South Korea let’s go over to another site this is my Reuters title
battle against coronavirus turns to Italy Wall Street falls on pandemic
fares over a thousand point loss on the Dow Jones on the 24th a couple of
interesting things here at kind of contrast what they did in China and
what’s going on in Italy of course in China things seem to be not rising as
fast and in Italy things seem to be climbing pretty rapidly and so they
talked here about China putting cities in lockdown Italian authorities are also
doing similar things sealing off the worst-affected towns closing schools
halting the carnival in Venice what they say here interestingly this is from
Reuters China’s actions especially in Wuhan the epicenter of the outbreak
probably prevented hundreds of thousands of cases said the head of the w-h-o
delegation in China Bruce Aylward the rest of the world to learn from the
lesson of acting fast they’re at a point now where the number of cure people
coming out of the hospitals each day is more than the sick going in he said the
surge of cases outside of mainland China triggered sharp falls in global markets
specifically in Italy as investors fled to safe havens and they talks about the
European equities markets he goes on to talk about the epidemic in
China peaking between January 23rd and February 2nd and they say has been
declining since dr. Mike Ryan the head of the w-h-o emergencies program told
reporters it is still possible to contain the virus and that it might
appear each year like the flu quote the virus may settle down into an endemic
pattern of transmission into a seasonal pattern of transmission or it could
accelerate into a full-blown global pandemic he said in Geneva on Monday and
at this point it’s not possible to say which of these realities is going to
happen goes on to talk about how the Trump administration is requesting a
billion dollars to deal with the corona virus now specifically what it is that’s
going on in China we’ve got China’s National Health Commission said that
while the rapid rise had been halted the situation was still grim he said over
3,000 medical staff have become infected most in hebei province surrounding Wuhan
probably due to the lack of protective gear and fatigue and we talked about the
fact that they a case fatality rate in Wuhan was higher than it is in the rest
of China we also talked previously about the fact that there was no protective
gear but we also talked about the need for sleep and the ability to sleep and
get rest and of course if there are a number of professional colleagues of
yours who are infected in quarantine that’s going to increase the load on you
that’s gonna make you more fatigued and hence we see videos of health care
providers in China collapsing and we hear a number of these physicians are
actually Sur coming to the virus so at this point excluding obaid mainland
China reported 11 new cases that’s the lowest since they started actually
taking figures On January 20th overall China reported 409 new cases on the
mainland down from 648 a day earlier there was a measure of relief it says
for the world’s second largest economy has more than 20 province level
jurisdictions including Beijing and Shanghai here we go
reported zero new infections whereas what’s going on outside of China while
things are taking off we’ve got 29 countries and territories
with a death toll of about two dozen according to the Reuters tally South
Korea 231 new cases making its total to 833 we see a couple of new countries
that have come to the table here Kuwait Bahrain Oman and Afghanistan they are
believed to be cases that have been to Iran in the past so a lot of things
going on it’s almost like a Tale of Two Cities it seems as though China has had
a huge hit but things may be on the verge of something different potentially
we’ll have to see and then we have Italy and South Korea which are taking off
want to talk briefly about another interesting article this is in the Wall
Street Journal we’ll put a copy of this link as well on the description below
this fascinating article which you will probably need to have a log in to read
it talks about this drugmaker moderna incorporated which has shipped its first
batch of its rapidly developed coronavirus vaccine to US government
researchers who will launch the first human tests of whether the experiment
could help suppress the epidemic originating in China now why is this
experimental well I encourage you to actually watch the video that is on this
site and you’ll see what I’m talking about but very briefly let me explain to
you what it is that’s going on there okay so normally what happens is a virus
here’s the virus goes in and infects a cell and what happens is these proteins
go on the surface of the cell when this virus infects the cell these proteins
here are very important because it tells the body that this is an infected cell
or that this for instance is a virus and what they normally do is they will
normally take the virus and they will inactivate it or kill it and they will
inject it in and what will happen here is that these proteins will induce an
antibody response in the body that allows the body to have many of these
antibodies already ready to fight so this is the normal
situation up here and the problem is it takes many months to create this type of
model where you can inject these proteins into the body so that you can
have these antibodies form against these proteins what they’re planning on doing
from what I’m getting from this article is something completely different in
terms of a vaccine what they’re really doing here is they’re having a cell and
because they have the genome of this virus they’re able to inject in this
case the RNA somehow into the body and this RNA will then go into the cells
which will tell the cells to produce the antigens which will then cause the
antibodies to form against it so in other words instead of having the virus
or the lab produce these antigens to inject into the human so that the human
can make antibodies what they’re instead of doing is isolating the genomic
sequences themselves having them tell your own cells to produce these antigens
and then these antigens are going to cause antibodies to be formed and that
is how they can do this much faster because they don’t have to go through
all the sequences of having this be done in other words making this they can have
your cells make the vaccine for you and then have you self immunized against the
virus and it seems as though this really hasn’t been done before and so according
to that Wall Street Journal article it looks as though they’re going to be
starting clinical trials in April and so that would be three months from the time
that they learned about the genome to the point where they can actually get a
vaccine for human clinical trials now this is a new technology and for some
people this may sound really cool for others it may be well what are the side
effects of this what’s going to happen when you’re starting to put DNA or RNA
and structions messenger RNA in most cases
in this case into your cells and tell them to make proteins that are foreign
to your body to cause an immune response it almost sounds like an autoimmune
condition so it’s gonna be interesting to see what happens and what are the
side effects of this to get a better understanding of this you’re going to
need to know about molecular biology and as it just so happens we have a video
that’s a primer on molecular biology because what we’re about to do is get
into the details of the corona virus life cycle and what it actually does in
the cell and how it’s different from other viruses thanks for joining us

100 Replies to “Coronavirus Epidemic Update 25: Vaccine Developments, Italy’s Response, and Mortality Rate Trends”

  1. Please subscribe to receive notifications about new MedCram videos.
    Visit us at for clear explanations of over 60 medical topics.
    All links referenced in this video are in the video description.
    Quick links to our other videos on Coronavirus (COVID-19):
    – Coronavirus Epidemic Update 24: Infections in Italy, Transmissibility, COVID-19 Symptoms:
    – Coronavirus Epidemic Update 23: Infections in Kids & Pregnancy, South Korea, Spillover From Bats:
    – Coronavirus Epidemic Update 22: Spread Without Symptoms, Cruise Quarantine, Asymptomatic Testing:
    – Coronavirus Epidemic Update 21: Antibodies, Case Fatality, Clinical Recommendations, 2nd Infections?:
    – Coronavirus Epidemic Update 20: Misinformation Spread, Infection Severity, Cruise Ship, Origins:
    – Coronavirus Epidemic Update 19: Treatment and Medication Clinical Trials:
    – Coronavirus Epidemic Update 18: Cellphone Tracking, Increase in Hospitalizations, More Sleep Tips:
    – Coronavirus Epidemic Update 17: Spike in Confirmed Cases, Fighting Infections with Sleep (COVID-19):
    – Coronavirus Epidemic Update 16: Strengthening Your Immune Response to Viral Infections (COVID-19):
    – Coronavirus Epidemic Update 15: Underreporting, Prevention, 24 Day Incubation? (COVID19):
    – Coronavirus Epidemic Update 14: Hospital spread of infection, WHO allowed in China, N-95 masks:
    – Coronavirus Epidemic Update 13: Li Wenliang, nCoV vs Influenza, Dip in Daily Cases, Spread to Canada:
    – Coronavirus Epidemic Update 12: Unsupported Theories, Pneumonia, ACE2 & nCoV:
    – Coronavirus Epidemic Update 11: Antiviral Drugs, Treatment Trials for nCoV (Remdesivir, Chloroquine):
    – Coronavirus Epidemic Update 10: New Studies, Transmission, Spread from Wuhan, Prevention (2019-nCoV):
    – Coronavirus Epidemic Update 9: Fecal-Oral Transmission, Recovery vs Death Rate:
    – Coronavirus Outbreak Update 8: Travel Ban, Spread Outside of China, Quarantine, & MRSA:
    – Coronavirus Epidemic Update 7: Global Health Emergency Declared, Viral Shedding:
    – Coronavirus Outbreak Update 6: Asymptomatic Transmission & Incubation Period:
    – Coronavirus Update 5: Mortality Rate vs SARS / Influenza:
    – How Coronavirus Kills: Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome (ARDS) & Treatment:
    – Coronavirus Update 3: Spread, Quarantine, Projections, & Vaccine:
    – Coronavirus Symptoms, Diagnosis, Treatment:
    – Coronavirus Outbreak – Transmission & Updates:

  2. We know that alot of information outside the us is inaccurate but the info collected by the us with our infected seems to follow what china has been saying this seems like there truth isn't completely made up

  3. What about the whole idea in the video …of RNA being injected in humans? Risk of auto-immune disease? Who takes responsibility for that? What will the vaccine be cultured on? What will it be preserved with? Will the people have full disclosure?

  4. Germany starts to develop a pandemic also the Netherlands. If we don't close borders we will have China like numbers in a few weeks. And most European country's can't provide the man Power of China to keep people under quarantine or build hospital.. 🙁 let's hope for a vaccine

  5. The news say that hey, the mortality rate is low among the healty and able-bodied? 80% have or are in remission? Only mainly those with ’previous health conditions’ and those over 60 years of age are dying? Well, no matter how one searches the net, mortality rates seem unavailable for these two groups, not to mention new-borns, etc. Pls, can some-one give some info on this viruses contamination ways and its incubination period? And do not go blaming China, Iran or the other Western ’enemies’. After all, you and me, baby, are nothing but mammals… 🙂

  6. I'm following an emergency room nurse in Wuhan on YouTube! Shes not even on a ventilator, she's been in 1 MONTH, and can't get released! Probably reinfected!🤮☠

  7. It seems we never get all the information. I'd like to know the age range of the groups of people who have died. First it's the very young, then the very old, then those with compromised immune systems and finally those who have no food left, and have been attacked by roving bands who will take anything that's left. Think it can't happen? Google Caterina.

  8. this vaccin development seems very easy to understand in terms of its function, how couldn't this be thought of earlier?

  9. The Moderna technology is super cool. I'm impressed. But at the same time you could easily use that technology to kill somebody. Just saying.

  10. Personally, I find the idea of letting the government inject RNA (essentially the same as a retrovirus) into my body even more scary than getting the illness… especially without any proper testing. But I expect there will be lots of people who are primed and anxious to be the first to get a vaccine, willing to volunteer for testing!

  11. I don't know if this is outside your stated domain of explanation, but what is the probability that the virus can be transmitted by post and how should one go about disinfecting articles arriving from China ? I receive quite a lot of stuff from China and I'm tempted to put received items in a box and pump ozone from an ozone generator into the box. What do you think ?

  12. Antiviral Activity of Chloroquine against Human Coronavirus OC43

    Infection in Newborn Mice

    Els Keyaerts, Sandra Li, Leen Vijgen, Evelien Rysman, Jannick Verbeeck,

    Marc Van Ranst,* and Piet Maes

    Laboratory of Clinical Virology, Department of Microbiology and Immunology, Rega Institute for Medical Research,

    University of Leuven, Leuven, Belgium

    Received 12 November 2008/Returned for modification 24 December 2008/Accepted 9 April 2009

    Until recently, human coronaviruses (HCoVs), such as HCoV strain OC43 (HCoV-OC43), were mainly

    known to cause 15 to 30% of mild upper respiratory tract infections. In recent years, the identification of new

    HCoVs, including severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus, revealed that HCoVs can be highly patho-

    genic and can cause more severe upper and lower respiratory tract infections, including bronchiolitis and

    pneumonia. To date, no specific antiviral drugs to prevent or treat HCoV infections are available. We

    demonstrate that chloroquine, a widely used drug with well-known antimalarial effects, inhibits HCoV-OC43

    replication in HRT-18 cells, with a 50% effective concentration ( standard deviation) of 0.306  0.0091 –


    and a 50% cytotoxic concentration ( standard deviation) of 419  192.5 –

    M, resulting in a selectivity index

    of 1,369. Further, we investigated whether chloroquine could prevent HCoV-OC43-induced death in newborn

    mice. Our results show that a lethal HCoV-OC43 infection in newborn C57BL/6 mice can be treated with

    chloroquine acquired transplacentally or via maternal milk. The highest survival rate (98.6%) of the pups was

    found when mother mice were treated daily with a concentration of 15 mg of chloroquine per kg of body weight.

    Survival rates declined in a dose-dependent manner, with 88% survival when treated with 5 mg/kg chloroquine

    and 13% survival when treated with 1 mg/kg chloroquine. Our results show that chloroquine can be highly

    effective against HCoV-OC43 infection in newborn mice and may be considered as a future drug against


  13. For those in the U.S. that have prepared for months now or few weeks, are you wearing masks out in public or waiting for it to get closer to your town?

  14. I guess people knowing there is no guarantee they will get the help they need at the hospital opt to stay home. This means only the people with the most sever or symptoms will present themselves to the hospital. Just another possible reason for higher fatality rate.

  15. There are rumors that vitamin C infusions are now being used in Wuhan. Can you please discuss the relationship of vitamin C and the cases in Wuhan?

  16. cruisse ship show that 2 weeks quarentiene should be at least 3 weeks. When they tould max was 14 days between no symptoms but having carona they said you should be 14 daya in quarentine. now that somebody was 24 days to get symptoma they still talking about 14 days quarentaine. with 2 weeks still like 3 percent infected without symptoms. probably only 0.1 -0.2 percent after 21 days. so like 17 times less then 14 days. so 21 days is minimum you need in my opinion.

  17. Do you think children are being spared because most children are vaccinated with a pneumonia vaccine?!?!? Like is that something that medical professionals are overlooking ?

  18. Thank you for your educational videos. You mentioned the rapid response method and an autoimmune body response. Is there higher risks using an autoimmune body response method? Is there any difference between using the DNA or RNA to create the instructions to the body's cells?

  19. The vaccine looks promising. What about the anti-viral drug from Canada, the derivative from quercetin? Any hopes for that drug?

  20. a new virus that is going to kill man kind comes out every few years. Nothing to worry about. We have short memories and the media love to scare us.

  21. Here is how it should work: Countries who don’t currently have outbreaks should lock their borders down and only permit international travel to other countries who are doing the same thing. Do this now or risk losing more countries to what could otherwise be a large safe list of countries if enacted now. I.E. travel only between USA-AUS-UK-NZ-CAN do it now before it is too late to travel anywhere at all.

  22. My country Brazil just confirmed its first case… right on time for carnival, where millions of people are crammed in the streets, touching each other (a lot) and drinking (A LOT).

    Oh boy…

  23. SARS CoV-1 and SARS CoV-2 have a nearly identical case fatality rate, within a couple tenths of a percent, if you calculate both on concluded cases. As of February 25th. The reason to panic? The WHO estimates a 60% global infection. Add my 9% death rate (I'll call it mine nobody else is using it) isn't that hundreds of millions dead. Ok 7.5 billion × 60% × 9% = help anyone?

  24. As a microbiologist of 30 years, I'm here to tell you that the company That claims to have a cutting edge technology for production of a vaccine is basically a pump and dump scheme. if you don't believe me, wait until April when the price per share of their stock has skyrocketed and they still haven't produced Jack shrimp that works. Introducing RNA into the blood stream is not going to magically make it go into cells and have antibodies produced…. that is the most ridiculous thing I've ever heard.

  25. I missed the connection with Italy. Were Italians residents on board the ship?
    From going to the hospital to mortality, are there general average days that actually succumb to death? It would be a bit vague, I understand.
    I appreciate your information. (& spoon feeding it to us, the non-educated folks!)

  26. If I told you that you have a 99% chance of remaining alive everytime you stepped out the door, would you continue to step out the door?

  27. In Kuwait yesterday there was nothing in Kuwait.
    Today. Kuwait is panicking duo to the Iranians coming to Kuwait.

  28. I was just curious, 80,000 infected and little over 2,000 deaths. The media had me thinking it was the black Plague. This year's influenza is expected to take over 10k lives. Not a word from the media, Alcohol and tobacco will take over two hundred t lives. Again silence. Good thing AIDS had nothing to do with China OR the people. By contrast Ebola was handled like the common cold, and we all know why. Another thing that's never mentioned is the total deaths in Afghanistan, Iraq Libya.. It behaves like a disease, spreads, been going on for 18 years and still killing. Why? The people in the middle East are asking, How do we get this disease to leave us alone?

  29. Three different lag time calculations and they all come to one percent? So a day were a hundred or more people died which was common throughout February means if you go back 4, 8, or 12 days you will find 10000 or more infections reported on those days each for the cfr to equal 1%. Nobody is really blinded by his bull are they. Every video he deliberately gives false numbers or broken math. SARS CoV-1 and SARS CoV-2 have an identical case fatality rate (Currently) if you calculate both on concluded cases. Even the lag time calculations agree if you dont fudge the numbers. We all remember a thousand or more cases a day reported during this example lag time in February. That puts the cfr at about 10%. Two separate techniques, one being "more accurate and unbiased" according to the WHO, calculate a case fatality rate of 9-11%.

    The cfr of the first SARS was also 2-3% during the outbreak. Not till later was it calculated precisely on concluded cases. A 60% global infection with a cfr of 9% scarier than 2%

  30. South Korea usually does two updates at the end of the day on top of a morning update. South Korea is currently at 1146 which is about a 300 person jump if I remember the number correctly.

  31. If you want to read articles without giving them ad revenu or allowing cookies and trackers, just copy the link onto a archiving website, and then read it from there.
    There's plenty of archiving website, just google them.

  32. Dr. Mike Ryan WHO, " It could settle down into a Endemic pattern of transmission or accelerate into a full blow Pandemic"

  33. Also….article was published by the wall street journal…the same news agency that pandered to Elizabeth Holmes…remember that gal?

  34. Thanks so much for explaining this well. Lets pray that this will be a major breakthrough in medicine in fighting viruses and will not cause any bad side effects. More power to you channel👍

  35. Thank you!
    Finally Oregon is reporting it’s suspected cases. I’m worried I won’t be prepared enough because they’ll make us work until it’s really bad- I work in a school so there’s lots of transmission of stuff. Currently I have a stomach bug, again.
    I’m also worried about my 74-year-old parents who live across the country from me. I want my dad to quite volunteering at the hospital now!

  36. it's true, per WHO, the word pandemic is no longer useful. Go to Google. Click on images. Type 1 word. Elephant. You will see elephants. Now type in two words. Animal elephant. You will see elephants again as images. Next type in 3 worda: pandemic animal elephant. You will see elephants again. Therefore WHO , the World Health Organization is truthful and correct when they say: "we no longer use the word: pandemic". The word is no longer useful. We have a virus, whether pandemic or not. Dear PETA, no elephants were harmed during this research.

  37. Why are Europeans getting well quicker than North Americans. Seriously, we only have 6 USA citizens recovered and have been sick several days longer on average to Europeans. Sick to Wellness days are severely different among these 2 groups. The answer: Olive oil and more rest. Europeans love olive oil. Europeans rest more than USA. So, eat more olive oil, and rest more. That's the secret. Do it now.

  38. No more caveats about the trustworthiness of the Chinese data? I pointed out the article in Foreign Policy that said outside Hubei they're only testing people with a travel history from Wuhan.

  39. So, do the experimental vaccines have HIV in them (auto immune manipulation)? SCARY! So, you can be cured of the coronavirus, but develop AIDS????

  40. Thank you so much would Meloxicam work really well for helping with inflammation or is it too powerful when the body is under too much strain from being sick?

  41. What I don't fully understand, why not so many people infected in Thailand, Bali and some other places, where really lot of Chinese Tourists were there? Something to do with the climate?

  42. No risk the later approach attack the own body or that the manufacturing of them steal resources / have some sort of impact? What if they make a normal vaccine later and that result in / would had resulted in the own body being attacked if used?

  43. Dr. Seheult, would you recommend people to wear N95 masks in public? Thank you so much for the public service you are providing.

  44. For the cure what if we mix honey and headache mixture and difficulty breathing mixture and a few good stuff for us??? I REALLY WANT THIS VIRUS GONE MY FAMILY IS BECOMING BROKE pls.. :c

  45. I don’t believe anything China says about the amount of deaths they’re lying how does it triple in a week in Italy yet stays the same in China

  46. China doesn’t know the exact amount of deaths bc the people are saying most people are choosing to die at home than in a hospital it could be 3 times more deaths than the 3000

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